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[Fanat]

Вот хорошая статья насчет реакции на Катрину... Или почему экономика (и доллар в том числе) не обезательно должен падать.

Краткий смысл в чем:
Есть разница между человеческой реакции (Смотрите какая трагедия!) и реакция спекулянтов экономиков которые смотрят на все с финансовой точки зрения.

-Акции на газ и тд поднялись

-Торговци взвесили удар катрины по экономике и так как Катрина может помочь (перестройка бедного района в более лучший для экономике) то их решение было то а не другое...

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EVENTS AND CONSEQUENCES.
Hurricane Katrina, with 145 mph winds, torrential rain and a 20-foot storm surge, slammed into the Gulf Coast early Monday morning wreaking havoc across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Crude oil futures prices soared above $70 a barrel, and prices of petroleum and building related stocks soared while those of airline and energy sensitive stocks plummeted.

Sounds ghoulish, but here's what Chapter 4 of Stocks, Strategies and Common Sense says it's all about: "When a major event such as a product introduction, an earthquake or assassination occurs, investors instinctively speculate on whether it will help or hurt corporate earnings. If the event seems likely to help earnings, prices rise. Conversely, prices fall if the news is perceived to be harmful." Indeed, Wall Street exhibited this behavior to a remarkable degree. Even in the face of horrific news, the broad market rose higher. I could see how the petroleum and building stocks could benefit from Katrina's devastation, but how could other businesses benefit that were hurt by the hurricane?

Aha. The thinking on Wall Street can become very convoluted, just so they get the answer they want. As I understand the thinking, many investors believe that high gasoline prices are going to slow the economy. Therefore, Dr. Greenspan and his jolly compatriots on the Federal Reserve Board will stop raising interest rates. Low interest rates are good for stock prices, so the theory goes, buy stocks now while prices are low. But who is to say that high gasoline prices will not stall the economy, thereby driving stock prices down? Who is there to say that Dr. Greenspan will, in fact, stop raising interest rates even if the economy does slow down? Who is to say that rebuilding the areas devastated by hurricane Katrina and other hurricanes so far this year will not cause the economy to strengthen?

I don't know. But I do know this. The media speaks of events in human terms, joy, pain, suffering and deaths. Investors think of events in financial terms, inflation, interest rates and earnings. There are Events and Consequences.